Crawling to a Standstill

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Hylan Boulevard, Father Capodanno Boulevard, Lily Pond Road and other local streets are experiencing residual delays due to the expressway backup. The Staten Island-bound lanes of the span are also showing delays, as well as the Belt Parkway in Brooklyn leading to the bridge.

Westbound lanes of the Staten Island Expressway are also showing heavy delays. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement and Privacy Policy. All rights reserved About Us.

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Commuters crawling to a standstill as city speeds fall

Last Wednesday, most models including the European were forecasting this motion to continue into and across the state out into the Gulf of Mexico. Shortly afterward, models began to indicate a weakening and shifting of the blocking ridge, along with the approach of a trough of low pressure from the United States.

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This development is what has led to most — not all —models predicting a northward turn for Dorian before the center could reach Florida. There has been great uncertainty in just when this right turn would develop.

Just a small delay and deviation in the storm track westward would bring a landfall to Florida, and this still cannot be ruled out. This weakening may already be showing up in the shape of the ridge, as seen in this surface analysis. Saturday and Sunday this model, along with the IBM MPAS model, had been indicating a landfall, which would have brought winds in the range of plus mph along with a maximum storm surge to the central and northeast part of the Florida coast.

As of this writing, though, this model now keeps the most destructive part of the eyewall offshore.

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  • There is good agreement with another hi-res model, called the HMON at 4 a. That is why we emphasize how a slight deviation to the west could still result in much more damage. When steering winds aloft are so weak and diffuse, this amount of error in hours in the track is not a low probability. The much-improved track forecasts still have a common error of 65 miles 48 hours out.

    Note the cone still includes the central and northeast part of the Florida east coast.

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    The best-case scenario still includes damaging, flooding wave action and tropical storm force winds of mph. The worst-case scenario brings 74 mph to plus mph winds to the warned area with destructive storm surge in a still slow-moving major hurricane. There would also be a smaller probability of winds somewhat stronger than this upper range with a more direct landfall as intensity forecasts have not improved as much as track forecasts.

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